《大空頭》里Michael Burry的投資策略系列（二）
作者：格隆匯·谷悶恆
編者按：投資既不是科學也不是藝術——它是具有科學性的藝術，之前與大家分享了《大空頭》里Michael Burry的投資策略（一），今日繼續分享第二部分，希望Michael Burry的投資策略系列文章對讀者會有所啟發。
大空頭裡的Michael Burry是個典型的怪胎，不擅社交，一個眼睛基本瞎了，天天只研究數據，挖公司股票。
但是正是這樣的一個怪胎，看到了美國房地產泡沫，並且成為了第一個大舉做空美國房地產的人。
Dr. Michael Burry is the founder of Scion Capital. He was recently made famous with the general public as a character in the movie adaptation of Michael Lewis』 book. The Big Short, but even before then he was famous in investing circles for his astute investing during times like the financial crisis of 2007.
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Michael Burry醫生是Scion資本的創始人。最近他因一部電影中的角色出了名，這部影片改編自Michael Lewis的書《大空頭》。其實在此之前，像在2007年這樣的金融危機時，他已經憑藉自己絕妙的投資策略在投資圈斬獲名氣。
Michael Burry is portrayed in the movie by Christian Bale. Thereal Michael Burrystarted out as a part time investor andblogger and built his reputation and AUM with great results and originalthinking.
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電影中Michael Burry這個角色由Christian Bale飾演。現實生活的Michael Burry原本是一名業餘投資者、也是博主，由此開始慢慢積累名氣，並根據原創邏輯建立自己的資產管理組合，收益頗豐。
He is a physician by training and has diagnosed himself as having Asperger』s Syndrome. Burry is particularly interesting for investors in that hehas adapted value investing principles to his personality, skills andnature.
他還是一名訓練有素的內科醫生，確診自己患有阿斯伯格綜合症。投資者們對Burry很感興趣，因為他採取了跟自己的性格、策略、本性相符合的價值投資思想。
Like Charlie Munger did many years before, Burry found new ways forvalue investing to evolve beyond using the system to find 「cigar butt」 stocks.
就像Charlie Munger多年前做的一樣，Burry找到了新的價值投資的方法，而不僅僅是使用這一體系去尋找「煙蒂」股票。
Burry』s approach indicates that value investing can work for technology and otherstocks that people like Warren Buffet may invest in if circle of competenceexists and the holding period is not as long that used by someone like WarrenBuffett.
Burry的方法表明價值投資對於科技股是有用的，對於其它一些股票也是有用的，比如只要能力圈存在，沃倫·巴菲特可能會投的股票跑，但是這些股票的持有期不需要跟巴菲特的持有期一樣長。
Technology changes too much to adopt the same holding period as Mungerand Buffett. What is Burry doing today? 「Michael Burry is still managing a hedge fund named Scion and is still critical of the way the financial system is being run, but now he』s more interested in water than real estate」 wrote the author of a New York magazine article who interviewed him inlate 2015.
科技革新的速度太快了，以至於我們無法像Munger和 Buffet那樣長期持有股票。Burry現在在做什麼呢？Michael Burry現在管理著一家名為Scion的對沖基金，對金融體系的運作方式還是抱著審視態度，但他現在對水業和房地產的興趣更大」，《紐約》雜誌的作者在2015年末採訪Burry后的文章中寫道。
Burry』s story demonstrates several important things. Most importantly, the power of being rational and the power of fundamental bottoms up research. It also demonstrates the huge value that permanent capital provides to a rational money manager since as Keynes once said: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Even as rational as Burry is, it took courage to make and to hold on to the investments that made him famous.Being right, but too early, is indistinguishable from being wrong.
Burry的故事說明了幾件重要的事情，最重要的是理性的力量和從基本面自下而上進行研究的力量。他的故事印證了永久性資本會給理性的資本經營者提供的巨大價值，正如凱恩斯所說：市場不理性的時間可能比你能保持償還能力的時間長。即便是像Burry這麼理性的人，也是需要勇氣去下決定、去堅守那些讓他成名的投資決策。
1. 「My weapon of choice as a stock picker is research; it』s critical for me to understand a company』s value before laying down a dime. I really had no choice in this matter, for when I first happened upon the writings of Benjamin Graham, I felt as if I was born to play the roleof value investor.」 「Investors in the habit of overturning the most stones will find the most success.」 「The late 90s almost forced me to identify myself as a value investor, because I thought what everybody else was doing was in sane.」
「我選股票的利器就是做研究；對我來說，在了解一家公司的價值之後再去投資是很重要的。我在這件事情上十分肯定，因為當我第一次偶然看到本傑明·富蘭克林的著作時，我就認定自己天生就是價值投資者。」 「翻石頭翻得最多的投資者往往能獲得最大的成功。」 「90年代末這個時期幾乎讓我不得不視自己為一個價值投資者，因為我覺得其他人的做法簡直是瘋了。」
Burry has not completely adopted the ideas of Warren Buffett or Ben Graham and has instead developed his own approach that remains true to the fundamental bedrock ofvalue investing.
Burry並沒有完全採用沃倫·巴菲特和本·格雷厄姆的理念，他在價值投資的河床基礎上形成了一套自己的方法。
Burry』s example illustrates how it is possible to follow the value investing system and yet have your own unique style. Again, he is at his core a value investor. Burry makes clear in this set of quotes that he treats shares of stock as a partial ownership of a real business and that understanding any business requires research.
Burry的例子表明了在皈依價值投資體系的同時保持自己獨特的風格是可行的。再一次強調，他本質上是價值投資者。Burry在這段話里明確說過自己把股票看作是一個實體企業的部分所有權，所以想要了解一家企業就需要做研究。
You must genuinely understand of the underlying business. A share of stock is not a piece of paper to be traded like a baseball card. The movie version of The Big Short conveys that the style of Burry has a lot more stress associated with it than a Buffett approach, but for Burry ithas worked out well financially.
你必須完完全全地去了解一個企業的根本。股票並不是棒球卡，不是一張用來交易的紙條。在電影版的《大空頭》里，Burry的投資方法附帶著比巴菲特的方法更大的壓力，但是對Burry而言，這個方法單從投資角度來看很適用。
2. 「All my stock picking is 100% based on the concept of a margin of safety, as introduced to the world in the book 「Security Analysis,」 which Graham co-authored with David Dodd. By now I have my own version of their techniques, but the net is that I want to protect my downside to prevent permanent loss of capital. Specific, known catalysts are notnecessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough.」
「我堅定地認為最好的對沖就是買一支適當安全和便宜的股票。」「這個就是我投資的原則，在做普通股投資時，把上升收益最大化是第一，其次是把下跌最小化。」
「My firm opinion is that the best hedge is buying an appropriately safe and cheap stock.」 「It is a tenet of my investment style that, on the subject of common stock investment, maximizing the upside means first and foremost minimizing the downside.」
「我是100%依照安全邊際的理念選股的。這個理念在格雷厄姆與戴維·多德合著的書《證券分析》一書中有介紹。至此，我已經在他們的技巧上發展出了自己的版本，但是核心還是希望保護自己在下跌時不會遭遇無止境的資本損失。具體而言，發現催化劑不是關鍵。純粹的價值足夠了。」
Burry reveals in these statements that he keeps the core value investing faith by always using a 「margin of safety」 approach. When Burry says: 「Lost dollars are simply harder to replace than gained dollars are to lose」 it is another way of saying what Warren Buffett has said many times: 「The first rule of investing is: don』t lose money;the second rule is don』t forget Rule No. 1.」 Joel Greenblatt agrees: 「Look down, not up, when making your initial investment decision.
Burry在上述言論中表明自己通過經常使用「安全邊際」這個方法來保持價值投資的核心信念。當Burry說：「要想拿回失去的錢比失去賺得的錢更難」，這其實就是沃倫·巴菲特常說的: 「投資的第一要訣是：不要丟錢；第二要訣就是記住第一要訣,」 換了一種說法而已。Joel Greenblatt對此表示贊同：「在做初始的投資決定時，要關注下跌，而不是上漲。
If you don』t lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones.」 Seth Klarman writes in his book of the same name: 「A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.」 An investor who purchases shares in a business at a price that reflects a margin of safety can make a mistake and still do well financially.
如果你沒虧錢，那麼剩下的選擇大多是不錯的。」 西斯·卡爾曼在自己的同名著作中寫道：「只有在股票購買價格充分低於內在價值，足夠應對人為失誤、不走運因素、允許複雜、不可測、快速變化情況下的極端波動時，安全邊際才存在。」 如果按反映出安全邊際的價格買入一家企業的股票，那麼即便犯了錯誤，投資者也還是能在投資上表現不錯。
When Burry refers to 「catalysts」 he is talking about the events that I wrote about in my post on Mario Gabelli, who has said: 「A catalyst may take many forms and can be an industry or company-specific event. Catalysts can be a regulatory change, industry consolidation, a repurchase of shares, a sale or spin-off of a division, or a change in management.」 Burry, Buffett,Greenblatt, Klarman, Gabelli all think about margin of safety first.It is not an optional part of value investing.
當提到 「催化劑」時，Burry也提到了我之前在寫Mario Gbelli時說過的案例：「催化劑可能有多種形態，可以是行業的，可以是跟具體某個公司有關的事情。催化劑可以是監管變化、行業聯合、股票回購、賣出或拆分公司分部、或是公司管理層變動。」 Burry, Buffett, Greenblatt, Klarman, Gabelli都會優先考慮安全邊際。這並不是價值投資的任選部分。
3. 「I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they』ve been polished up a bit.」 「Fully a ware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices, I will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse.」
「我嘗試去買那些不受歡迎的，看上去像走到了窮途末路的公司的股票，稍微漲上來一點就賣掉。」 「我十分清楚好的企業只有在價格也恰到好處時才能帶來絕妙的投資機會，我會繼續挖那些被當作垃圾股的便宜貨。」
The third bedrock value investing principle is: Mr. Market is your servant and not your master. Howard Marksmakes the same point Burry is making about the necessity of sometime being contrarian: 「It is our job as contrarians to catch falling knives, hopefully with care and skill. That』s why the concept of intrinsic value is so important. If we hold a view of value that enables us to buy when everyone else is selling – and if our view turns out to be right –that』s the route to the greatest rewards earned with the least risk….
價值投資原則的第三個基石是：你要把市場先生當作僕人，而不是你的主人。Howard Marks跟Burry有過同樣的觀點，他們認為有時候當一個逆向投資者是必要的。「作為逆向投資者，我們的工作就是抓住落下的飛刀，當然是以謹慎且有技巧的方式。」這就是為什麼內在價值的概念如此之重要。如果我們覺得是價值支撐我們在大家都賣出的時候持有——如果這個觀點是正確的——那麼這就是承擔最少的風險卻獲得最大回報的途徑……
To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don』t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.」 Adopting the popular viewpoint will not result in market out-performance if the popular forecast is also right. Some roadkill is really roadkill, and some refuse is really refuse. Finding an out-of-favor business selling at a substantial bargain and then waiting is the name of the value investing game.It is easier to say than do.
為了獲得出眾的投資收益，你必須對價值有更深刻的認識。因此你需要學會別人不會的東西，從不同的角度看問題，或者是在分析價值時做得更出色——當然最理想的是三點都能做到。」即便大眾的觀點是對的，跟隨大眾的觀點也並不能讓你比市場表現得更出色。很多馬路殺手就真的是馬路殺手，有的垃圾股真的就是垃圾股。找到一個賣價足夠便宜的冷門公司之後就是等待，這是價值投資遊戲的真諦。但是說起來總是比做起來要容易。
4. 「I prefer to look at specific investments within the inefficient parts of the market.」 「The bulk of opportunities remainin undervalued, smaller, more illiquid situations that often represent average or slightly above-average businesses.」 「In essence, the stock market represents three separate categories of business. They are, adjusted for inflation, those with shrinking intrinsic value, those with approximately stable intrinsic value, and those with steadily growing intrinsic value. The preference, always,would be to buy a long-term franchise at a substantial discount from growing intrinsic value.」
「我偏向於在市場的無效領域尋找具體的投資機會。」 「絕大多數投資機會都藏在低估的、小型的、流動性更強的情況中，它們通常代表平均水平或者稍微超出平均水平的企業。」「從本質上說，股市代表著三類不同的企業。通貨膨脹調整之後，這三類分別是：內在價值縮水的企業，內在價值幾乎穩定的企業，內在價值穩步增長的企業。最優先考慮的當然是以極大的折扣價買入內在價值逐漸增長的長期特權。」
Markets are often efficient but that does not mean that they are always efficient.If you work hard at the research side of investing and are diligent Burry believes that bargains can be found. The bargains may not always be found within your circle of competence and may not be available for very long but if you are aggressive and willing to act quickly Burry believes there are big opportunities for an investor.
市場經常是有效的，但是這並不意味著他們總是有效的。如果你在做投資時努力做好研究，並且足夠勤奮，Burry相信你總是能找到便宜的股票的。便宜的股票不一定總是在你的能力圈中被找到，可能也不一定長期買得到，但是如果你足夠有闖勁兒，也願意迅速行動，Burry認為這樣的投資者會找到大機會的。
5， 「It is Buffett, not Graham that espouses low turnover. Graham actually set targets: 50% gain or 2 years. That actually ensures rather high turnover.」
「巴菲特贊成低收益率，但是格雷厄姆不贊成。費雷厄姆實際上定的目標是：50%的收益或者2年。這實際上確保了相當高的收益。」
The actual Ben Graham quote from an interview is: 「If a stock hasn』t met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price.」 This statement by Graham is not consistent with Warren Buffett』s view of the world, but it is perfectly acceptable for a value investor to do as long as the holding period is not so short that it falls within the definition of speculation. Burry feels comfortable buying stocks and other assets that Buffett would avoid. Both approaches are still value investing.
本·格雷厄姆的話實際上出自一次採訪：「如果一隻股票在第二年年末都沒有達到你的預期，那麼就賣掉它，不要管價格。」格雷厄姆的這番話跟巴菲特的世界觀並不一致，但那是這對於價值投資者而言是可接受的，只要持有期沒有短到被認為是投機行為。很多巴菲特不會的股票、資產，Burry倒是覺得能接受。兩種方法都是價值投資。
6， 「Credit-default swaps remedied the problem of open-ended risk for me. If I bought acredit-default swap, my downside was defined and certain, and the upside was many multiples of it.」
「信貸違約掉期幫我修正了無止盡風險的問題。如果我買入一個信貸違約掉期，那麼下跌就是有限且確定的，而上漲可達幾倍。」
Burry is describing a classic example of positive optionality that I discussed in my post on Nassim Taleb: 「Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).」 If you can buy positive optionality at a bargain price that investment can be very valuable. It is of course possible to over pay for optionality.
Burry說的就是我之前在Nassim Taleb這篇文章中說過的典型的積極的期權屬性案例：「這個期權屬性是指非對稱上漲（最好是無止境的），對應有限的下跌（最好是很小的）。」如果你能夠以較低的價格買入積極的類期權，這個投資就很有價值。當然你可能需要為這種類期權支付太多。
「How do I determine the discount? I usually focus on free cash flow and enterprise value (market capitalization less cash plus debt). I will screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprise value/EBITDA ratio, though the ratio I am willing to accept tends to vary with the industry and its position in the economic cycle.
要如何決定折扣呢？我通常會關注自由現金流和企業價值（市值減去現金，加上負債）。我會通過EV/EBITDA這個從一大批企業中篩選出一部分，我會根據這個比率對不同行業以及企業在經濟周期所處的不同位置具體分析。
If a stock passes this loose screen, I』ll then look harder to determine a more specific price and value for the company. I also invest in rare birds — asset plays and, to a lesser extent, arbitrage opportunities and companies selling at less than two-thirds of net value (net working capital less liabilities). I』ll happily mix in the types of companies favored by Warren Buffett — those with asustainable competitive advantage, as demonstrated by longstanding and stable high returns on invested capital — if they become available at good prices.」
如果一個企業通過篩選，我就會再詳細考量，給這個企業定一個更具體的價格和價值。我也會投資罕見的投資標的——估值不當的股票，或者範圍再縮小一點，套利機會，或者公司股價低於其凈值（凈經運營資本減去負債）的2/3。我很樂意綜合一下巴菲特看好的各類公司，只要它們價格合適——有可持續競爭優勢的那一類，表現在投入資本的回報率持續穩定在高水平。
Burry is not like Buffett in every way and not like Graham either. Burry shows how it is possible to follow the value investing system and yet have your own unique style. But he is still a value investor since he buys at a price that reflects a margin of safety, does not make Mr. Market his master and treats shares of stock as a partial ownership of a real business. Burry』s styleis opportunistic and fits with who is he is. You are not Michael Burry and neither am I. Most everyone is far better off investing in a low cost portfolio of diversified index funds.
Burry在各方面跟巴菲特和格雷厄姆都不是很像。Burry向我們展示了如何在價值投資體系里保留自己獨特的風格。但是他仍舊是一位價值投資者，因為他的買入價格體現了安全邊際，他沒有讓市場先生成為自己的主人，而是把股份當作是自己的對於一個實業的部分所有權。Burry的風格是機會主義，很適合他自己。你不是Michael Burry我也不是。對我們大多數人來說，投資成本低的多樣化指數基金是更明智的。
7. 「Volatility does not determine risk.」 「I certainly view volatility as my friend. Volatility is on sale because 99% of the institutions out there are doing their best to avoid it.」 「I will always choose the dollar bill carrying a wildly fluctuating discount rather than the dollar bill selling for a quite stable premium.」 Michael Mauboussin has a wonderful description of volatility that I like a lot.
「波動率並不意味風險。」「跟我朋友一樣，我對股票波動率率持有非常明確的觀點。波動率較大的股票售價便宜，因為99%的機構都在極力甩開它們。」「相對於價格穩定的股票來說，我永遠會選擇那些波動比較大的、便宜的股票。」我很喜歡MichaelMauboussin對於股票振幅的這段論述。
「A lot of value investors shun concepts such as volatility, or standard deviation, as a measure of risk — and I』m sympathetic to that point of view.That said, the notion of risk is very time-dependent. For very short periods oftime, volatility is a pretty good way to think about risk. I have kids in college and I have to write a check for their tuition, so volatility is a very important concept for me. I want to minimize my volatility so I can make sure I can write that check.
許多價值投資者會避免用波動率或者標準偏差的概念來估量風險。我贊同這種觀點。即便如此，風險的概念是完全取決於時間的。短期來看，波動率是估量風險的好辦法。我的幾個孩子在上大學，我用支票給他們付學費，所以波動率對我來講很重要。我得使波動率最小化，才能夠確保自己可以開出支票支付學費。
Or if you go out to an options desk and say, 「Options traders, we』re taking away your measure of implied volatility,」 they would actually be very much hamstrung. But if you take a long-term point of view,which most value investors do, then that idea of volatility melts away and, in fact, volatility becomes your friend. Risk then becomes the loss of permanent capital. You can bring these under the same tent by thinking about the temporal dimension。
否則如果你直接去期權商的櫃檯說：「交易員，我們不考慮你們算出來的隱形波動率，」那他們可能會被驚呆。但是如果像大部分投資者一樣從長遠角度來看，波動率的影響就會逐漸消失。事實上波動率還會成為你的好夥伴。此時風險就變成了資本上的永久損失。你可以從時間維度上得出同樣的結論。
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